Which Week 16 games are relevant to the Cowboys and what outcomes should you be rooting for?

With only three weeks remaining in the 2024 regular season, the Cowboys have won three of their last four games. However, it’s likely too late for playoff hopes, and these recent victories aren’t helping Dallas’ position in next year’s draft either.

While technically still alive in the NFC playoff race, the Cowboys’ chances are slim. As we’ve discussed, they need to win out and hope for a lot of losses from teams between them and the seventh seed.

If the Commanders beat the Eagles in an early Sunday game, the Cowboys will be eliminated before their game against Tampa Bay. Even if Washington loses, Dallas could still be knocked out with a loss to the Buccaneers.

Instead of focusing on the unlikely playoff scenario, let’s turn our attention to the 2025 draft pick and how the Cowboys’ performance this week could affect their draft position next April.

If the season had ended last week, the top 15 draft order would have looked like this:

1. New York Giants (2-12)
2. Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
3. New England Patriots (3-11)
4. Carolina Panthers (3-11)
5. Tennessee Titans (3-11)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11)
7. Cleveland Browns (3-11)
8. New York Jets (4-10)
9. Chicago Bears (4-10)
10. New Orleans Saints (5-9)
11. Miami Dolphins (6-8)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (6-8)
13. Dallas Cowboys (6-8)
14. Indianapolis Colts (6-8)
15. San Francisco 49ers (6-8)

Dallas fell from 12th to 13th after beating Carolina, with Miami moving up. The Cowboys have a stronger strength-of-schedule rating than the Bengals and Dolphins but weaker than the Colts and 49ers, which places them in the middle of the 6-8 teams. However, strength of schedule will shift as the season progresses, so the tiebreakers won’t be settled until after Week 18.

With a tough matchup against the Buccaneers, Dallas could soon drop to 6-9 and push further into the top 10 of the draft. Here are the Week 16 games to watch for potential impact on the Cowboys’ draft position:

Jaguars over Raiders
While Dallas can’t surpass the two-win Raiders, it could tie the three-win Jaguars if Jacksonville wins out and Dallas loses out. This outcome could contribute to improving the Cowboys’ draft position.

Bengals over Browns
Colts over Titans
Dallas could match Cleveland and Tennessee in a scenario where they lose out and those teams win out. Since both Indianapolis and Cincinnati are tied with Dallas at 6-8, their victories would be beneficial for the Cowboys’ draft standing.

Dolphins over 49ers
Neither team winning would harm Dallas, but since Miami is currently ahead of the Cowboys in the draft order with a lower strength of schedule, a Dolphins win would be more beneficial for Dallas.

Giants over Falcons
This game is largely irrelevant since Dallas can’t finish with a worse record than the Giants. However, rooting for New York not to secure the top pick could still be a factor.

Jets over Rams
Bears over Lions
Panthers over Cardinals
Patriots over Bills
Saints over Packers
These are all favorable picks for Dallas, as these teams, currently ahead in the draft order, could potentially upset playoff contenders. If teams like Buffalo ease up after clinching their division, these upsets might become more plausible.