A Case for Chalk: Why a Final Four of No. 1 Seeds Is Great for College Basketball
Just a day away from a historic Final Four featuring four No. 1 seeds, the Blue Zone argues that the “chalkiness” of this year’s NCAA Tournament might actually be good for college hoops.
For only the second time in tournament history, all four top seeds have reached the Final Four. The bracket saw few real upsets, and no true Cinderella story emerged — a rarity in March Madness. In fact, the last time a bracket filled by “betting on chalk” produced a perfect Final Four was in 2008.
To some fans, this predictability signals a problem. Critics say the lack of chaos waters down the magic of March, and point fingers at NIL deals and the transfer portal for disrupting the balance that once let schools like Loyola-Chicago steal the spotlight. Remember D.J. Burns and N.C. State’s magical run? Those stories are what make the tournament special — but only to a point.
Consider 2023: a wild, upset-heavy ride that ended with UConn, Miami, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic in the Final Four. The result? The lowest-viewed title game in history — only 14.69 million people tuned in to see UConn lift the trophy. The following year, UConn faced No. 1-seed Purdue in the final and crushed them, capping a dominant run where the Huskies never trailed in the second half of a game. Purdue, for their part, had dismantled No. 11-seed N.C. State in the Elite Eight. Was that really “madness,” or just a gap in quality?
Meanwhile, 2024 also marked a shift: the women’s national title game outdrew the men’s in viewership for the first time ever. That game had it all — two top seeds, undefeated South Carolina vs. Caitlin Clark and Iowa — and still delivered massive drama without a Cinderella in sight. Star power and high-level basketball drove the hype.
Sure, upsets make the early rounds thrilling. But as double-digit seeds advance, the excitement often fades. The deeper they go, the more it feels like the quality of play takes a hit. If the point of the tournament is to find the best team in the country, then four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four means the system is working.
Now, the stage is set in San Antonio. Auburn, Duke, Florida, and Houston are four elite programs, each with a legit shot at cutting down the nets.
Auburn leans on a veteran core led by National Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome and has looked like the nation’s best for most of the season. Duke, powered by star freshman Cooper Flagg and a savvy supporting cast, combines youth and experience under Jon Scheyer in his first Final Four appearance as head coach. Florida’s explosive offense runs through sharpshooter Walter Clayton Jr., who dropped 30 in their Elite Eight win. And Houston? A tough, seasoned squad that hasn’t lost since early February and matches Duke in efficiency and dominance.
This year’s Final Four isn’t lacking drama — it’s loaded with talent. All four teams rank in the top 10 ever in KenPom efficiency, with Duke sitting at No. 1. Whoever cuts down the nets in San Antonio won’t just be a champion — they’ll have a case as one of the greatest teams of all time.
So maybe the real problem isn’t the lack of chaos. Maybe it’s that these four teams are just that good — and that’s something worth watching.
No Cinderellas? No Problem. This Final Four Is Pure Madness.
For the first time in years, the Final Four feels truly up for grabs — a wide-open, four-horse race to the title. Anyone suggesting this isn’t madness is missing the point entirely.
And let’s drop the idea that there’s a lack of storylines. Sure, Cinderella runs are fun and make for great headlines, but this year’s bracket brings its own brand of drama — rooted in rivalries, redemption, and rising stars.
Florida head coach Todd Golden, in just his third season at the helm, has taken the Gators from an early NIT exit to the doorstep of a national title. But standing across the court is Bruce Pearl — Golden’s former boss — now leading a powerhouse Auburn squad. Call it friendly fire with everything on the line.
Then there’s Duke. A decade removed from its last national championship, the Blue Devils are hungry to reestablish their dominance. After last year’s stinging Elite Eight loss to D.J. Burns and N.C. State, head coach Jon Scheyer returns with a vengeance — and a squad that can make good on that promise. But Houston stands in their path, fueled by their own thirst for history. Still chasing its first national title, Kelvin Sampson’s team has been knocking on the door for years. With nearly 800 career wins, Sampson has done everything except win it all — and the Cougars want to change that.
Every team left has a real shot at glory. Every coach has something to prove. If that’s not madness, what is?
So as the Final Four tips off Saturday in the Alamodome, don’t lament the absence of a plucky mid-major. Don’t bemoan the lack of a Cinderella. Instead, recognize the moment for what it is: a clash of elite programs, historic potential, and unforgettable stakes.
This level of competition doesn’t come around often. Embrace it. Enjoy it. This is March Madness — just at its absolute best.
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