Arkansas Football’s Grueling Path to the College Football Playoff
Year after year, Arkansas football faces one of the toughest schedules in the nation. That’s not exactly breaking news—it’s been the reality for nearly a decade. That’s life in the SEC, especially after spending years in its most brutal division before the league scrapped divisional play.
It’s a double-edged sword. On one hand, the Razorbacks rarely catch a break. But on the other, no team in the country has a more direct—albeit treacherous—path to the College Football Playoff.
In 2025-26, Arkansas may not need 10 wins to land a playoff spot. According to Kelley Ford’s rankings, eight wins might be enough to make the Hogs a legitimate at-large contender. The question is: where do those eight wins come from?
Let’s attempt (emphasis on “attempt”) to chart a realistic path to eight victories—without veering too far into homer territory.
Setting the Stage
Before diving into the matchups, let’s acknowledge the obvious: only those inside the program truly know the strengths and weaknesses of this Arkansas team.
Still, based on what we do know—especially additions via the Transfer Portal and Taylen Green entering Year 2 under offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino—there’s reason to believe the offense can take a major step forward.
The defense, however, is another story. After key losses along the defensive line and in the secondary, it’s hard to project a unit that can consistently carry games. If Arkansas is going to reach eight wins, they’ll likely need to win more than a few shootouts.
Easy Wins
- Alabama A&M
- Mississippi State
Realistically, Alabama A&M is the only lock. Mississippi State is trending downward after the tragic passing of Mike Leach in 2022, and last year’s 58–25 beatdown in Fayetteville shows the Razorbacks can dominate if things break right.
Yes, Blake Shapen returns for the Bulldogs, but unless their defense takes a significant leap, Arkansas should still have the upper hand.
Likely Losses
- Texas
- Notre Dame
Not many teams will face three College Football Playoff contenders during the regular season, and only six schools will take on two semifinalists from last year—Arkansas among them.
Texas and Notre Dame both return much of their core talent and look poised for another CFP push. Pulling off an upset in either game would be monumental, but it’s a long shot.
Lean Wins
- Memphis
- Arkansas State
These games aren’t gimmes, but Arkansas should come out on top—though not without a fight.
Arkansas State has been waiting years for a shot at the flagship program. When the teams meet in Little Rock, emotions will be high. Still, the talent gap is wide, and the Hogs should handle business.
Memphis, meanwhile, is no pushover. The Tigers went 11–2 last season, capped by wins over Florida State and West Virginia. Playing in Memphis adds another layer of difficulty, but again, Arkansas has more firepower on paper.
Lean Losses
- Ole Miss
- LSU
These are winnable games, but Arkansas would need to catch some breaks.
Ole Miss steamrolled Arkansas in 2024, making it arguably defensive coordinator Travis Williams’ worst outing to date. Revenge will be on the table, and the Rebels will be breaking in a new starting QB—Austin Simmons. If the Hogs can pounce early, this could be a surprise win.
LSU’s defense has been a glaring weakness under Brian Kelly, and that likely won’t change overnight. If Arkansas can turn this into a shootout, they have a shot. Unfortunately, it’s on the road in Death Valley—never an easy place to pull off an upset.
Coin Flip Games
- Texas A&M
- Auburn
- Tennessee
- Missouri
These are the pivotal matchups—the ones that will determine whether Arkansas finishes with five wins or sneaks into the playoff conversation.
Tennessee: The Vols are replacing Nico Iamaleava, and the QB situation remains unsettled. That’s a major variable.
Missouri: With Brady Cook gone, we’ll see if the Tigers can replicate their recent success. Arkansas has a real shot here.
Auburn: On paper, they look improved—but results under Hugh Freeze haven’t matched the hype. Until proven otherwise, Auburn is a mess in gold paint.
Texas A&M: The Aggies are stable and talented, but they’re finally coming to Fayetteville—no more cursed games at AT&T Stadium. That alone shifts this game into toss-up territory.
Final Thoughts
Eight wins isn’t a pipe dream—it’s possible, though the margin for error is razor-thin. The Hogs must handle business in the “should-win” games, pull off one or two upsets, and win the coin flips.
With an explosive offense and a favorable strength-of-schedule narrative, Arkansas doesn’t need perfection to earn playoff consideration. But they do need resilience—and a few timely breaks.
Projecting Eight Wins for Arkansas
If Arkansas handles business in the “Easy Wins” and “Lean Wins” categories, that’s four victories already on the board. Add a win over either Ole Miss or LSU—tough, but not out of reach—and the total climbs to five.
The remaining three wins will likely need to come during a crucial stretch from October 11 to 25, when Arkansas faces three of the four “Coin Flip” opponents in back-to-back-to-back weeks. If the Razorbacks can emerge with two wins during that gauntlet, and finally get over the hump against Missouri at home to close the regular season, they’ll hit the magic number: eight wins.
It won’t be easy—but for once, the path is clear.
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