This week brings a matchup that pairs two quality quarterbacks with two shaky pass defenses. Points could pile up in a hurry.
Duke’s defense powered its success in 2024, but heavy offseason losses—especially in the secondary—have sparked a sharp decline early in 2025. The Blue Devils have already allowed 30+ points twice, equaling their total from all of last season. A quick look at defensive metrics year-over-year makes the drop-off obvious.
Opposing quarterbacks are completing 67.6% of passes at 9.2 yards per attempt with a passer rating of 157.91. Compare that to 2024: 58.0%, 6.5 YPA, 121.66 rating. Duke is still disruptive up front, but the back end has been prone to breakdowns.
That trench battle is worth monitoring. Duke’s defense ranks among the nation’s best in havoc rate, while State’s offense has been among the worst at preventing havoc.
While the defense has slipped, Duke’s offense has surged—thanks largely to an offseason upgrade at quarterback. Darian Mensah has elevated the passing attack from 89th in EPA per pass play last year to 39th this season. He’s been heavily leaned on, attempting at least 34 passes in every game so far (helped in part by Duke playing from behind).
Despite losing their top two receivers, the Devils returned Que’Sean Brown and Sahmir Hagans, both 40-catch players, and added Cooper Barkate, who topped 1,000 yards at Harvard in 2024. From Actual Harvard to Frat Guy Harvard—a cultural adjustment, but at least the smaller crowds won’t faze him.
The run game is still subpar, though better than last year’s complete non-factor. Veteran Jaquez Moore handles most of the carries, but freshman Nate Sheppard is worth watching after breaking out for 75 yards on just five runs against Tulane. With only 15 total carries, Sheppard somehow leads the team in rushing yards (127).
Special teams haven’t helped matters. A muffed punt here, a blocked field goal there—it’s left Duke consistently losing the field-position battle. Combine those miscues with shaky defenses on both sides, and this game has plenty of potential to turn chaotic—for better, worse, or both.
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