In recent installments of this series, we’ve spotlighted Clemson, SMU, Louisville, Miami, and UNC — the squads Vegas has pegged as frontrunners for the ACC crown. You may not agree with all of them (let’s be honest, Miami and UNC were partly there to draw in the haters), but right now they’re widely considered the class of the conference.
Of course, this is the ACC — or as longtime fans know it, the “All Chaos Conference.” Literally anyone can win this thing. Sure, Cal’s odds might be slimmer than a kicker’s playbook, but bizarre twists are practically baked into ACC football. This league is the Bermuda Triangle of college sports: the moment you think you’ve got it figured out, something strange surfaces.
While predicting the ACC is a fool’s errand, I’ve gone ahead and put together a tier ranking for the rest of the field, outlining where I think each team’s chances stand heading into next season.
Top Contenders
If you missed my earlier breakdowns, here’s the short version: Clemson, Louisville, and SMU sit at the top. Clemson probably deserves its own tier — their talent edge this year is that pronounced — but all three have the roster, schedule, and coaching to post nine-plus wins and be right in the thick of the title hunt.
Dark Horses
These are the teams that may not have a clean résumé going in, but they’re dangerous. Whether it’s a favorable schedule, raw talent, or just the right breaks, they’ve got a realistic shot at making a run.
Georgia Tech
If you’re reading this, you probably already know why the Yellow Jackets land in this tier. The schedule sets up well, and the offense should be a real weapon. The questions lie on the other side of the ball — defensive consistency, depth issues, and the ever-present worry about staying healthy.
Fans have every reason to feel optimistic, but it’s fair to admit there are more talented rosters in the ACC. If the breaks go their way, this could be one of those seasons people talk about for years. But just as easily, a couple key injuries could send things sideways. So, while dreaming big is allowed, it might be wise to keep one foot on the ground.
Florida State
FSU was tricky to place. Talent-wise, they might be the second-best roster in the ACC — depending on where you rank SMU — but last year’s collapse stemmed from the coaching staff losing the locker room early, and the season unraveled from there.
The talent is still there, but the schedule is a gauntlet. Alabama, Clemson, Miami, and Florida all loom, though the rest of their ACC slate is relatively manageable, with Virginia Tech probably the toughest opponent outside the big two.
If the Seminoles avoid an early-season meltdown, they could realistically finish ACC play with just one or two losses — and that might be all it takes to punch a ticket to the conference title game.
Duke
The Blue Devils upgraded at quarterback in the offseason and return a dependable running game, giving them a balanced offensive core. Their schedule isn’t brutal, though matchups with Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Illinois will test them. Coming off a nine-win season, the main hurdle is clear: last year, Duke consistently beat the teams they were supposed to beat, but struggled against opponents with winning records.
If they can flip that script and knock off a couple of the ACC’s top dogs, they could find themselves in the championship mix. Even if they fall short of that, another strong, bowl-bound season seems likely.
Surprised but Not Shocked
These teams are solid, but offseason question marks keep them a tier below the true contenders. Most of their schedules are winnable, with only a handful of matchups that feel out of reach. If they take care of business and catch a few breaks — or if a top team stumbles — they could sneak into the ACC title game. Predicting them to win the whole thing right now would be bold, but not completely out of the question.
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech enters the season with more questions than answers. Two new coordinators, 40 incoming transfers, and a schedule that includes South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Louisville, and Miami make for an unpredictable year.
The Hokies have talent, and Brent Pry has shown he can develop it. Based on last season’s flashes, they’re capable of pulling off an upset or two. If they can limit ACC losses to just two and get a little help from other contenders stumbling, a trip to the championship game isn’t out of the question. For now, though, the safer bet is a solid bowl appearance — and waiting to see how this revamped roster performs when the pads start popping.
North Carolina
Yes, I already wrote about UNC for the clicks — but honestly, this is where they belong. The Tar Heels have question marks all over the roster, yet they also face one of the softest schedules in Power Four football this year. If they can simply perform like a top-40 team nationally, an ACC Championship berth is within reach.
From there, anything can happen. If Bill Belichick (yes, that still feels strange to type) can mold the talent he’s brought in, UNC’s ceiling rises — even if the odds aren’t exactly in their favor.
Miami
Since I slotted UNC into this tier, I might as well put Miami where they actually belong. This will be a hot take for some, but I just don’t see how the Hurricanes win the ACC this year if they couldn’t do it with last season’s talent. As I covered in my earlier article, Miami still has a strong roster, but a challenging schedule and a frustrating knack for losing games they shouldn’t.
Even if they post another 10-win season, I have little faith in them breaking through — Miami has yet to win an ACC title, and I doubt that changes this year. Ironically, they might be one of the rare teams in the country with a better shot at making the playoff if they don’t appear in their conference championship game.
Where There’s a Will There’s a Way
These teams aren’t bad, but they’re fighting uphill battles. They’re unlikely to control their own destiny, meaning they’ll need a healthy dose of good fortune — or the kind of chaos the ACC is famous for — to make a serious run.
Syracuse, NC State, Pitt
Grouped together for simplicity, these three programs share similar storylines. Each lost significant pieces in the offseason to the draft or the transfer portal. They’ve all restocked with transfers, but much of that new talent has yet to play together. On top of that, each faces a tougher schedule than last year — though NC State and Pitt do avoid Clemson, which is a small blessing.
A bowl game feels like the realistic target, but don’t count them out entirely. The coaching staffs here have track records of pulling off surprising wins, so they’re worth keeping an eye on.
Boston College
Boston College finds itself in a similar situation to the teams above, though the Eagles have done well to retain most of their core talent. Unfortunately, they might be staring at the toughest ACC schedule this season. The good news? Their biggest challenges — Clemson and SMU — come at home.
Realistically, BC would need
Virginia
I don’t have anything against Virginia — they’re just… well, Virginia. The Cavaliers have a knack for tripping over themselves in key moments, and everyone in the locker room knows it. An unexpected loss tends to pop up every season, derailing momentum.
The schedule is manageable, and there’s real talent coming in through the transfer portal, but consistency has been elusive. Until UVA proves they can win the games they’re supposed to, it’s hard to buy into their ACC title chances. The potential is there — the history says otherwise.
Do You Believe in Unlikelihoods?
This tier belongs to the programs that would need to climb a mountain (and probably move it) to win the ACC. Offseason setbacks have left them with uphill battles in talent, depth, or schedule. Could something wild happen? Sure — this is the ACC, after all. But right now, the odds are long.
California
Poor Cal. No team in the nation was hit harder by the transfer portal, and the roster turnover has been brutal. The schedule is on the softer side, so a bowl game is within reach, but expecting a conference title run feels unrealistic after such a massive talent drain.
Wake Forest
With a new head coach and limited impact talent arriving through the transfer portal, expectations for Wake Forest are tempered. The upside is that the coaching change began during the regular season, so there’s already some familiarity between staff and roster. The Demon Deacons could pull off a surprise or two, but based on last year’s results, it’s hard to see them mounting a serious run at the ACC title.
Stanford
Coming off a three-win season and losing their head coach in the offseason, Stanford is deep in rebuild mode. There’s a long road ahead before the Cardinal can realistically think about competing for a bowl game, much less the ACC title.
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