The Florida State Seminoles are set to open their 2025 season on August 30 with a high-stakes matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Tallahassee. Alabama will be starting a new quarterback, who will be making not only his first career start on the road, but also his debut in a hostile environment—an element that could play a major role in the game’s outcome.
Given these circumstances, some college football analysts are questioning the current betting line. DraftKings has Alabama favored by 12.5 points, but On3’s J.D. PicKell expressed doubt that the spread will hold once the teams hit the field. He also noted that this matchup, while potentially explosive, has flown somewhat under the radar in early season chatter.
J.D. PicKell of On3 described Florida State vs. Alabama as “one of the more low-key big-time matchups of Week 1” in the upcoming college football season. The Crimson Tide are currently 12.5-point favorites heading into the Aug. 30 showdown in Tallahassee, but PicKell isn’t convinced that the line will hold up, especially given the unique circumstances.
“You got Alabama going to Tallahassee to play Florida State. Right now, Alabama is a 12.5-point favorite. I get Florida State was not good last year, to put it simply. Twelve and a half? Twelve and a half at the crib? We’ll see,” PicKell remarked, expressing skepticism about the wide spread, particularly with the game being played at Doak Campbell Stadium.
The analyst later pointed out that Florida State could actually present a challenging matchup for Alabama—especially at quarterback. PicKell noted that FSU’s Tommy Castellanos shares similarities with the type of mobile quarterbacks that troubled the Tide last season.
“It’s funny when you look at this matchup,” he said. “The kind of quarterback that gave Alabama trouble a year ago is exactly the same kind of quarterback that Florida State is rolling with here with Tommy Castellanos. Now, that’s not me telling you that Florida State has a quarterback advantage. That’s not me telling you that I’m buying all the Tommy Castellanos stock I can find. I like the way he fits the system. I like Gus Malzahn. I like a lot about this. He still has to go out there and prove it, though—still has to go out there and cut up on an Alabama defense.”
Referencing past performances by mobile quarterbacks like Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia, Oklahoma’s Jackson Arnold, and former Tennessee signal-caller Nico Iamaleava, PicKell suggested Castellanos could have a similar impact.
“Thomas Castellanos, I think, is as good, if not a better runner of the football than all those quarterbacks I just named.”
As the Seminoles prepare to host Alabama, they’ll be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage and start the 2025 campaign with a statement win against one of college football’s perennial powerhouses.
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