NC State needs two wins in its final five games to secure bowl eligibility and punch a ticket to a lower-tier ACC bowl—probably the most realistic goal for this season. At this point, that feels like the ceiling.
It’s hard not to look back at that Virginia Tech loss and think it might end up being the one that costs the Pack a postseason. That game was a missed opportunity, plain and simple.
Let’s take a look at how the final five opponents stack up in SP+ and FPI, along with NC State’s win probability for each matchup.
For context, NC State currently ranks 66th in SP+ and 58th in FPI, meaning the Pack will be a clear underdog in four of its last five games. If the Miami game turns out as one-sided as the Notre Dame debacle—and there’s little reason to think otherwise—and if NC State can take care of business against that perpetually chaotic bunch from Chapel Hill, then the season essentially comes down to three winnable games with a trip to Shreveport hanging in the balance. You can feel the tension already.
The numbers aren’t exactly encouraging—FPI’s game-by-game odds are modest—but overall, the model gives NC State about a 70% chance to reach 6–6.
The best opportunity for a win probably comes next. The Wolfpack gets a bye week to rest and prepare, while Pittsburgh won’t have that luxury. The Panthers are breaking in a freshman quarterback—talented, yes, but still prone to freshman mistakes—and the atmosphere at Pitt isn’t exactly intimidating. That’s about as much optimism as I can muster right now.
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