Duke (1-2, 0-0) opens Atlantic Coast Conference play on Saturday when it hosts unbeaten North Carolina State (3-0, 1-0). Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. EDT with coverage on ESPN2. The Blue Devils enter as 3.5-point favorites.
At his Monday press conference, head coach Manny Diaz emphasized defense as the key to Duke’s success moving forward.
“The biggest thing for us right now is where we are defensively,” Diaz said. “That’s always going to be the foundation for how we win games here at Duke.”
Through three games, however, Duke’s pass defense has struggled. The Blue Devils rank 11th in the ACC, surrendering 226 passing yards per game.
On offense, Diaz highlighted growth in the run game. Duke is averaging 126.7 rushing yards per contest to go along with 352.7 yards through the air. Freshman Nate Sheppard has been a spark in the backfield with 127 yards on 15 carries.
N.C. State Offense
Running back Hollywood Smothers has been the ACC’s most productive rusher so far, averaging 126.7 yards per game at six yards per carry, with a long run of 57 yards. The Wolfpack collectively average 175.3 rushing yards per game, fourth best in the conference.
Quarterback C.J. Bailey presents a dual threat. He has completed 70.8% of his passes with five touchdowns and just one interception, while also rushing for 84 yards and three scores on 21 attempts. For the second straight week, Duke faces a quarterback capable of extending plays with his legs.
Wesley Grimes leads N.C. State’s receiving corps with nine catches for 173 yards and a touchdown. Noah Rogers and Terrell Anderson have each topped 100 receiving yards, while tight end Justin Joly is Bailey’s security blanket, hauling in 13 passes for 90 yards and two touchdowns.
In short, the Wolfpack bring balance—able to both run and throw effectively. Duke’s defense will need its best showing yet to contain Bailey and company.
N.C. State Defense
Linebackers Sean Brown (31 tackles) and Caden Fordham (26) anchor the defense. Statistically, N.C. State has been solid against the run (115.3 yards allowed per game, 9th in ACC) but vulnerable through the air (297.3 yards allowed, 16th).
The Wolfpack will be shorthanded early, as defensive end Sabastian Harsh must sit the first half due to a targeting ejection last week. Still, the unit is capable of big plays. Defensive tackle Isaiah Shirley, named ACC Defensive Lineman of the Week, returned an interception 41 yards for a touchdown against Wake Forest.
Defensively, N.C. State has been stout after halftime—shutting out Wake Forest in the second half last week and holding Virginia to just seven points after the break the week before.
Duke Outlook
Quarterback Darian Mensah will look to exploit the Wolfpack’s shaky secondary. Mensah has thrown for over 300 yards in three straight games and will be aiming for a fourth. For Duke, the key question is whether those yards can translate into more efficient red-zone scoring.
N.C. State head coach Dave Doeren praised Mensah’s skill set:
“He’s a really good passer—sees the field, strong arm, throws catchable balls, and he’s accurate on the move. We have to do a great job keeping him in the pocket and staying disciplined in coverage.”
Prediction
Expect a competitive battle. Duke’s secondary steps up just enough on third downs, and Mensah continues his hot streak to give the Blue Devils a narrow home win.
Duke 33, N.C. State 27
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