FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — The Arkansas Razorbacks may not feature prominently in many preseason Top 25 polls this summer, but ESPN’s Football Power Index offers a different perspective.
On Tuesday, ESPN unveiled its initial computer-generated rankings for the 2025 regular season, spotlighting familiar frontrunners like No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Ohio State, and No. 5 Penn State.
Arkansas lands at No. 22, just edging out their “Battle Line Rivalry” opponent Missouri, which sits at No. 23.
Despite its competitive standing, Arkansas finds itself in the lower half of ESPN’s Football Power Index, reflecting the SEC’s formidable depth, a trend echoed in recruiting rankings, AP Top 25 polls, and other analytical metrics.
ESPN’s projections suggest a modest outlook for Arkansas this fall, with a 64% chance of achieving the six-win mark. The Razorbacks are forecasted to end the 2025 regular season at 6-6, marking their third such record in four years under coach Sam Pittman.
Returning quarterback Taylen Green, who racked up over 3,700 yards and 23 touchdowns in 2024, provides a solid foundation. Pittman’s staff bolstered the roster with a Top 20 transfer portal class, featuring key additions like left tackle Corey Robinson (Georgia Tech), safety Julian Neal (Stanford), and wide receiver O’Mega Blake (Charlotte), all expected to make significant impacts.
Postseason prospects remain limited, with Arkansas holding no chance of an undefeated season and less than a 1% likelihood of capturing the SEC Championship. However, with the expanded College Football Playoff format, a conference title isn’t necessary for Arkansas to secure a playoff berth.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have an 8.1% chance of reaching the expanded College Football Playoff, a 0.7% chance of advancing to the national championship game, and a 0.3% chance of winning it all, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
The FPI, a sophisticated tool designed to predict team performance, measures a team’s strength relative to an average team. Arkansas currently holds a 10.8 FPI rating, placing it 44 spots ahead of Oklahoma State, a Big 12 team ranked No. 67 with a rating just 0.3 points above average. Notably, Oklahoma State defeated Arkansas in Stillwater last season.
ESPN’s FPI generates projections based on 20,000 simulations of the remaining season, incorporating current results, future schedules, and the FPI metric. Ratings and projections are updated daily, though data prior to 2019 may be incomplete.
Entering his sixth season, Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman holds a 30-31 overall record and a 14-25 mark in SEC play since 2020.
Arkansas concluded the 2024 regular season with a 6-6 record, dropping three of their final four games but clinching bowl eligibility with a win over Louisiana Tech. The Razorbacks capped the season with a 39-26 victory over Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl, boosting coach Sam Pittman’s bowl record to an impressive 3-0.
Looking ahead to the 2025 season, Arkansas faces a challenging slate featuring several Top 25 teams per ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The schedule includes:
– **Alabama A&M**: N/A
– **Arkansas State (Little Rock)**: No. 101
– **at Ole Miss**: No. 13
– **at Memphis**: No. 65
– **Notre Dame**: No. 7
– **at Tennessee**: No. 10
– **Texas A&M**: No. 8
– **Auburn**: No. 14
– **Mississippi State**: No. 52
– **at LSU**: No. 12
– **at Texas**: No. 1
– **Missouri**: No. 23
With a gauntlet of high-ranked SEC opponents and a marquee matchup against Notre Dame, the Razorbacks will need to leverage their returning talent, including quarterback Taylen Green and key transfers, to navigate this demanding schedule.
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