BREAKING NEWS: Indiana Football’s 2025 Outlook: Rebuilding Amid Rising Doubts

Indiana Football Faces Skepticism Despite Rebuilding After Historic 2024 Season

Following a landmark 2024 campaign that saw Indiana reach the College Football Playoff and post its first-ever 10-win season, expectations remain cautiously optimistic for the Hoosiers heading into 2025. Second-year head coach Curt Cignetti and his staff have reshaped the roster through key transfer additions, but many around the country — including data models — are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

On Tuesday, ESPN released its updated 2025 Football Power Index (FPI) rankings, placing Indiana at No. 31 nationally. That represents a 21-spot drop from the Hoosiers’ end-of-season No. 10 ranking in 2024 — tied for the 10th-largest decline among all FBS programs. Among Power Four teams, only Louisville and Colorado fell more significantly.

Despite the dip, ESPN’s model still projects Indiana to win between seven and eight games, giving the Hoosiers an 87.5% chance to reach bowl eligibility (six wins) and an 8.9% chance to return to the College Football Playoff.

Indiana’s FPI rating stands at 8.3, meaning the Hoosiers are projected to be 8.3 points better than the average FBS team. Still, their standing suggests lingering skepticism, even after last year’s breakthrough.

Within the Big Ten, Indiana ranks eighth according to FPI, behind:

• Ohio State (No. 4)

• Penn State (No. 5)

• Oregon (No. 6)

• Michigan (No. 17)

• USC (No. 19)

• Nebraska (No. 25)

• Washington (No. 27)

Of Indiana’s 2025 conference opponents, only Oregon and Penn State are ranked higher.

Despite the metrics, ESPN’s Jake Trotter argues the Hoosiers may be undervalued.

“Indiana did graduate quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who had a fabulous one season for the Hoosiers while propelling them to the playoff and the first 10-win season in school history,” Trotter wrote. “But the team returns several key players, including All-Big Ten receiver Elijah Sarratt, defensive end Mikail Kamara, linebacker Aiden Fisher, and cornerback D’Angelo Ponds.”

Indiana also landed Cal transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who brings 19 career starts and valuable experience to Bloomington.

“Curt Cignetti has already proved he can coach,” Trotter added. “And with no Ohio State or Michigan on the schedule, it wouldn’t be completely stunning if Indiana knocks on the door of playoff contention once again.”