Like It or Not, Analytics Are Defining the Future — And Kansas Is at the Forefront
Whether you swear by them or still scoff at them, analytics and advanced stats have become an undeniable force in modern sports. Football is no exception. Last month, we took a deep dive into Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric on ESPN. Today, we turn our attention to another analytics juggernaut: OPTA, and their Big 12 predictions heading into the 2025 season.
At the heart of OPTA’s projections is TRACR — short for Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster. In simple terms, TRACR blends last season’s play data with adjustments for recruiting rankings, transfer portal moves, offseason roster turnover, and strength of schedule (past and future) to create a predictive model for team success.
And the results? Kansas is turning heads.
According to OPTA, the Jayhawks enter the 2025 season ranked third overall in the Big 12 — first in offense, 13th on defense. Even more eye-opening: Kansas is projected to have the most wins in the conference, with 8.6 expected victories and just 3.4 expected losses. Texas Tech trails closely with 8.5 projected wins.
OPTA 2025 Preseason TRACR Rank:
Kansas — 3rd overall (1st in Offense, 13th in Defense)
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One concern: Quarterback Jalon Daniels and All-Big 12 center Bryce Foster both underwent offseason surgeries. While Daniels is expected to be available, Foster’s health remains more uncertain as camp nears. The Jayhawks rallied late last season — now, they’ll need a fast start to capitalize on their momentum.
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One reason for optimism: The pass rush could be a real weapon. Kansas posted an above-average 35.6% pressure rate last year and returns three of its top four sack leaders: Dean Miller, Tommy Dunn, and DJ Withers.
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Player to watch: Let’s be honest — it’s all on Daniels. When he protected the football, Kansas looked like a real contender. When he didn’t, the wheels came off. His consistency will make or break this team.
Part of the Jayhawks’ projected success stems from their schedule. CBS Sports ranked KU’s 2025 slate as the 13th-easiest in the Big 12, a favorable path for a team with real aspirations. Hosting both Kansas State and Utah is a major advantage, and road trips are limited to just three teams who posted winning records last fall. Well-timed bye weeks also work in their favor.
The table is set. Now it’s time to see if the Jayhawks can turn data into dominance.
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