N.C. State enters 2025 looking to rebound from a difficult 2024 season, but the program’s track record under head coach Dave Doeren suggests consistency is the norm in Raleigh. Over his 12 years, the Wolfpack have averaged 7.25 wins, posting nine winning seasons, earning 10 bowl berths, and finishing in the College Football Playoff Top 25 three times.
Still, national projections show less optimism than the Wolfpack have expressed during fall camp. Pro Football Focus (PFF) and the ESPN Football Power Index both predict N.C. State will finish 11th in the ACC — the same spot assigned by the preseason ACC poll.
According to PFF, the Wolfpack have a 75% chance of reaching bowl eligibility, with an expected seven wins. The outlet gives N.C. State an 8% chance to win the ACC and an 11% shot at making the College Football Playoff. Within its rankings, State sits between rivals Duke (ahead) and North Carolina (behind).
ESPN’s model is more cautious, projecting just 6.2 wins and a 64% chance at a bowl. Its index places N.C. State behind Boston College (No. 8), UNC (No. 9), and Duke (No. 10). The Wolfpack’s ACC title chances are listed at 1.3%, with only a 2.2% probability of reaching the playoff.
Despite those odds, N.C. State has several offensive playmakers who could tilt the narrative. Quarterback CJ Bailey delivered Philip Rivers- and Russell Wilson-like numbers as a freshman in a season where he was initially expected to redshirt. Receiver Hollywood Smothers found his rhythm in the second half of 2024 and is projected to start alongside Bailey this fall. At tight end, Justin Joly combines size, skill, and football IQ, making him a potential All-ACC performer and future NFL draft pick.
The defense, however, enters 2025 with more uncertainty after losing a large share of starters and over half of its letterwinners. Even so, the program’s history of defensive success suggests last year’s struggles may have been an outlier rather than a trend.
With that backdrop, here is a look at N.C. State’s 2025 schedule — and how the Wolfpack might fare in each matchup.
Sept. 6 – Virginia
Predicted record: 2-0
Virginia enters 2025 with more questions than answers. Both ESPN and PFF rank the Cavaliers near the bottom of their preseason projections, and the ACC poll placed them 14th. While this is an ACC opponent, the matchup will not count in the league standings.
On paper, the Wolfpack has a decisive advantage. N.C. State earned a 77.3 PFF passing grade last year compared to Virginia’s 59.7. In the all-time series, State leads 37-22-1, including five wins in the last six meetings. The Pack has also won three straight and is 17-9 against the Hoos at home.
Though betting lines aren’t yet available, history and metrics make this a probable win for N.C. State.
Sept. 11 – at Wake Forest
Predicted record: 3-0
The Wolfpack’s trip to Winston-Salem looks favorable, though Wake Forest matchups often carry unpredictability. Last year, N.C. State nearly pulled out a win despite losing QB Grayson McCall to injury, but late defensive breakdowns led to a 34-30 Demon Deacons comeback. The year before, the Pack dominated on the road, winning 26-6 behind Brennan Armstrong.
This season brings even more uncertainty for Wake. First-year head coach Jake Dickert is working with 58 new players, leaving chemistry a major unknown. The Deacs were picked to finish last in the ACC, but projections are mixed: ESPN pegs them for 4.7 wins and a sub-30% chance of bowl eligibility, while PFF projects 6.7 wins and a 71% bowl chance but ranks them much lower overall.
Historically, N.C. State holds the advantage, with a 69-43-6 series lead and no back-to-back losses since 2018–19. The Pack is 31-21-2 all-time in Winston-Salem. On paper, this matchup is another probable win.
Sept. 20 – at Duke
Predicted record: 3-1
This rivalry has swung back and forth, but Duke has held the upper hand lately, winning four of the last five meetings. The Blue Devils bring back most of their roster with 37 new additions but will be breaking in a new quarterback. Tulane transfer Darian Mensah takes over after throwing for 2,723 yards, 22 touchdowns, and six interceptions last season.
Mensah showed flashes against Power Four teams — posting 342 yards and two scores against Kansas State and 166 yards with a TD against Oklahoma — but he was sacked eight times combined in those games, raising questions about how he’ll fare behind Duke’s offensive line.
The all-time series favors Duke, 43-37-5. With both ESPN and PFF projecting the Blue Devils in the 6–8 win range, this matchup shapes up as a tossup leaning toward a possible loss for the Pack, especially with the game in Durham.
Sept. 27 – Virginia Tech
Predicted record: 4-1
Virginia Tech was picked 11th in the ACC preseason poll (earning one surprising first-place vote) and projects as a middle-of-the-pack team, with ESPN forecasting 7.8 wins and PFF around 7. Quarterback Kyron Drones returns after earning four preseason ACC Player of the Year votes, having already thrown for 3,865 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions in his career.
The Hokies, however, lost key stars to the NFL, including All-ACC defenders Antwaun Powell-Ryland and Aeneas Peebles, plus standout running back Bhayshul Tuten.
N.C. State trails the all-time series 28-20-4 but has won two straight, including close calls in 2022 (22-21) and 2023 (35-28). At home, where the Pack is 9-5-1 against Tech, this one is best described as a tossup leaning toward a possible win.
Oct. 4 – Campbell
Predicted record: 5-1
Campbell comes to Raleigh as a massive underdog. The Camels went 3-9 last year, were picked 10th in the Coastal Athletic Association, and sit 228th in 247Sports’ overall recruiting rankings.
N.C. State has never played Campbell, but the mismatch is clear. The Wolfpack has not lost to an FCS opponent this century, and this game shouldn’t be the first. Expect a probable win and an opportunity to build momentum.
Oct. 11 – at Notre Dame
Predicted record: 5-2
The Wolfpack face one of their toughest tests of the season in South Bend. Notre Dame is fresh off a national championship appearance and reloaded with the nation’s 12th-ranked recruiting class, featuring five-star safety DeVonta Smith (from Alabama) and Virginia transfer WR Malachi Fields.
Oddsmakers list the Irish as the No. 7 favorite to win the national title. ESPN gives them a 45% chance of making the CFP, while PFF puts them at 20%.
The all-time series is tied 2-2, but Notre Dame has won the last two, including a 45-24 victory in Raleigh. N.C. State’s only trip to South Bend was also lopsided, a 35-14 defeat. Given Notre Dame’s firepower and depth, this is a probable loss for the Wolfpack.
Oct. 25 – at Pitt
Predicted record: 6-2
Few ACC teams are harder to peg than Pittsburgh. Since 2021, the Panthers have gone 11-3, 3-9, and 7-6, and analysts again expect them to hover near bowl eligibility.
The centerpiece is RB Desmond Reid, a Western Carolina transfer who racked up 966 rushing yards, 579 receiving yards, and nine total touchdowns in 2024. His versatility earned him All-ACC First Team honors and six second-team All-America nods.
The Wolfpack and Panthers are tied 5-5 all-time, with N.C. State winning the last three meetings. Coming off a bye, State should be rested, but the key will be slowing Reid — something the defense has struggled with in recent years, though it did stifle UNC star Omarion Hampton last fall.
This one is a tossup leaning toward a possible win if the Pack can contain Pitt’s ground game.
Nov. 1 – Georgia Tech
Predicted record: 6-3
Georgia Tech returns one of the ACC’s most experienced offensive cores, headlined by QB Haynes King, WR Malik Rutherford, RB Jamal Haynes, and OL Keylan Rutledge — all of whom earned All-ACC honors last season. King finished second in preseason Player of the Year voting, trailing only Clemson’s Cade Klubnik.
The Yellow Jackets project as a bowl team once again, with ESPN giving them an 85% chance of qualifying and PFF at 63%. Like N.C. State, they face a schedule filled with toss-up games, with offenses considered strengths and defenses still raising questions.
History leans heavily toward Georgia Tech, which leads the series 21-11 and has won four of the last five. Last year’s matchup was a heartbreaker for the Wolfpack, which scored 22 fourth-quarter points but fell 30-29 after a failed two-point conversion and a late defensive lapse.
With both teams expected to score, the outcome may hinge on which defense holds up — and given N.C. State’s losses on that side of the ball, this one looks like a tossup leaning toward a possible loss.
Nov. 15 – at Miami
Predicted record: 6-4
Miami enters 2025 as a legitimate contender for both the ACC and the College Football Playoff. Picked second in the league, the Hurricanes boast a 97% chance of making a bowl, and odds-makers put them near 50-50 for a CFP berth.
The biggest change is under center: QB Cam Ward, the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft, is gone, replaced by Georgia transfer Carson Beck. While inconsistent at times in Athens, Beck has never lost to an ACC opponent. The Hurricanes also bring back defensive stars Francisco Mauigoa and Rueben Bain, both preseason All-ACC selections.
N.C. State does get a bye before this game, and Mario Cristobal has been known to let opportunities slip, but Miami’s roster looks too strong on paper. The Hurricanes lead the all-time series 11-6 and have won seven of the last 10. The Wolfpack hasn’t won in Coral Gables since 2007, though it did edge Miami in Raleigh in 2023.
This shapes up as a probable loss for the Pack.
Nov. 21 – Florida State
Predicted record: 6-5
Florida State looks to bounce back after a disappointing season, and head coach Mike Norvell has reloaded with the ACC’s No. 2 recruiting class, filled with both transfers and elite prep talent. ESPN and PFF both project the Seminoles as bowl eligible with a favorable schedule.
At quarterback, former Boston College starter Tommy Castellanos is expected to lead the offense. Over two years with the Eagles, he threw for 3,614 yards and 33 touchdowns against just 10 interceptions. His 2024 campaign ended poorly after he was benched following a rough outing against Syracuse, but his dual-threat ability still makes him a dangerous playmaker.
The numbers and history lean FSU’s way — the Seminoles lead the series 27-16 overall. But N.C. State has won three straight against Florida State, including a dramatic one-point victory in 2022, and holds a competitive 10-11 record in home games.
The Pack should keep it close, but given roster attrition and FSU’s upgrades, this matchup is a tossup leaning toward a possible loss.
Nov. 29 – North Carolina
Predicted record: 7-5
Few rivalries carry more weight than N.C. State–UNC, and this year’s installment comes with even more intrigue. The Tar Heels overhauled their program after parting ways with Mack Brown, bringing in Bill Belichick to lead a roster featuring 71 new players and an almost entirely new coaching staff.
While ESPN’s Power Index ranks UNC ahead of both N.C. State and Duke, the sheer lack of continuity could make the transition bumpy. The Tar Heels lost key stars to the NFL — including Omarion Hampton, Alijah Huzzie, Jahvaree Ritzie, and Willie Lampkin — and saw several transfers, among them Conner Harrell, Beau Atkinson, Amare Campbell, DeAndre Boykins, and Malik McGowan.
South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez is the projected starter at quarterback after throwing for 2,559 yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2024. Lopez also adds mobility, rushing for 465 yards and seven scores. Veteran QB Max Johnson, who broke his leg in last year’s opener, is back, though his role remains uncertain.
Historically, UNC leads the series 68-40, but the Wolfpack has turned the tide, winning four straight and seven of the last 10. Dave Doeren has often emphasized the importance of beating Carolina — a point he made from the day he was hired. With momentum in the rivalry and the game in Raleigh, this is a tossup leaning toward a possible win. And if nothing else, there’s the chance to say you beat Belichick.
Season Outlook
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Floor: 4-8
The worst-case scenario involves the defense failing to regroup after heavy attrition and injuries striking key players. Anything under seven wins would be alarming, but it’s not impossible in a league where many mid-tier teams can beat each other on any given week. -
Ceiling: 9-3
Realistically, N.C. State isn’t favored to beat Miami or Notre Dame on the road. But if it takes care of business in toss-up games, a nine-win season is within reach. Most of last year’s losses were one-possession games, and with CJ Bailey expected to take a step forward at quarterback — supported by weapons like Hollywood Smothers and Justin Joly — the Wolfpack has the tools to flip some of those outcomes.
Doeren has never had back-to-back losing seasons as a head coach, and history suggests N.C. State will again land in that familiar middle ground: just shy of double-digit wins, but competitive enough to matter in the ACC.
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