What awaits Vladdy and the Blue Jays in the future?
This tale was taken from Keegan Matheson’s Beat newsletter. To view the complete newsletter, click here. And sign up to receive it consistently in your inbox.
TORONTO — Until the Blue Jays create a significant move that draws everyone’s focus back to 2025, it’s challenging to keep your gaze from wandering ahead.
How will the upcoming phase of Toronto baseball appear?
Obtain tickets for the Blue Jays’ 2025 season.
Periods in baseball aren’t marked by any specific duration. You can still consider this the period of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, as the Blue Jays persist in their efforts to fulfill the plans they established nearly ten years ago to construct a foundation around a youthful core. Prior to this was the period of José Bautista and the “group of outlaws” who returned Toronto to the playoffs.
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What comes next, then? The Blue Jays might maintain their success by extending Guerrero Jr., but at this moment, they would have to present the young star with an incredible deal to prevent him from exploring free agency next winter at only 26 years old. An additional high-profile signing could prolong this timeframe as well, something the organization has attempted with Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and others, but so far it hasn’t succeeded, and George Springer’s six-year, $150 million contract from January 2021 remains the biggest in franchise history.
This question may loom throughout the season, especially if Toronto resembles its performance from 2024.
As the offseason drags on and Spring Training approaches, I often ponder what my initial question — or primary story — will be when camp commences. This year, it seems that the response lies in Vladdy’s future with the team. That’s not an optimal position for the Blue Jays to find themselves in.
Anticipating ahead: Financial significance
Together with Guerrero and Bichette, Chris Bassitt is commencing the last year of his $22 million contract. Chad Green is also in his last year, earning $10.5 million, and if recent trends suggest anything, Toronto will likely pursue some veteran signings on one-year contracts.
Kevin Gausman’s contract expires after 2026, and José Berríos has an opt-out option that might be appealing in this market if he maintains strong performance. Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho will also be free agents after ’26. It’s evident that the Blue Jays have an exit option available to them next year if they decide to pursue it. A significant addition would entirely alter that situation, but we have yet to witness it.
That being noted, the club has increased payrolls to record levels in recent years. Additionally, ownership has invested $400 million in renovations for Rogers Centre and over $100 million in the team’s player-development facility and spring training home, TD Ballpark. None of this logically corresponds with a conventional rebuild so quickly after, but as we’ve observed in these previous two winters, finances aren’t the sole consideration.
The upcoming trend: Participants
Toronto’s farm system has developed major league players, but it must generate a star once more. That’s the magic ingredient.
Had the Blue Jays cultivated one or two additional above-average players during this competitive period, it could have allowed for an extra $10 million or $20 million to be allocated elsewhere. It seems that this system has been nearly able to make that impact, and whenever it has gotten close, nothing has gone the club’s way.
No. 4 prospect Ricky Tiedemann, previously regarded as the No. 1 pitching prospect, is an extraordinary talent when in good health, but he will dedicate much of 2025 to recovering from Tommy John surgery. No. 2 prospect Orelvis Martinez is a strong player capable of altering a game, but he missed the second half of ’24 due to an 80-game suspension for using a performance-enhancing substance. When it pours, it rains.
Currently, the Blue Jays’ system lacks its next Guerrero or Bichette. This situation can shift rapidly, especially with emerging talents such as Martinez, the fifth-ranked prospect Arjun Nimmala, or whoever Toronto chooses with the eighth pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, yet it’s a challenging aspect to wager on.
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