The 2025 NCAA Tournament has been one of the most unusual in recent memory—not because of a Cinderella team making an improbable run or a top contender suffering an early exit, but for the exact opposite reason. This year’s tournament has been one of the most predictable in quite some time.
For the first time since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four, mirroring the historic year when Memphis, Kansas, North Carolina, and UCLA all advanced. Before 2025, that was the only other instance of this happening in tournament history.
Additionally, the lack of upsets has made this year’s tournament stand out. The Elite Eight featured three matchups between No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, along with a single No. 1 vs. No. 3 showdown. The only high seed to be eliminated early was No. 2 St. John’s, which fell to No. 10 Arkansas in the Round of 32.
The numbers further highlight how “chalky” this tournament has been. The 2025 tournament had just seven first-round upsets, tying with 2023 as the fewest since 2016, when only six occurred.
Whether this level of predictability is a positive or negative depends on your perspective. Casual fans often root for chaos, hoping for a double-digit seed to make an improbable run. On the other hand, those who prefer elite matchups—or who support powerhouse programs—might appreciate the high-level clashes we’re seeing in this year’s Final Four.
While some may find it dull to see top seeds dominate, this type of tournament is actually rarer than a Cinderella story. Before this year, at least one No. 11 seed or lower had reached the Sweet 16 in every tournament for the past 16 seasons. In that sense, this year’s “chalk” bracket is nearly as rare as an underdog run.
Whether you prefer the chaos of upsets or the drama of powerhouse matchups, one thing is certain—this NCAA Tournament has been one for the history books.
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